Who will dominate news coverage of the Senedd Election campaign?
The next five weeks of campaigning for the Senedd election represents one of the most fascinating periods in Welsh political history.
Polls are projecting a tight contest between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and a substantial fall in support for Labour and the Conservatives. The Greens are hoping to win seats in the Senedd for the first time, and the Liberal Democrats are looking to build on their current single MS.
With six parties competing in a new proportional voting system, the electoral field is more congested than ever, raising the question of how broadcasters will meet their commitments to impartiality while still providing space for scrutiny that goes beyond simply reporting party messaging.
Our project team at Cardiff University will be monitoring election coverage. We will systematically track party coverage, topical agendas, prominence of Welsh and UK party leaders, and levels of political scrutiny. We will monitor coverage across the UK-wide flagship TV news bulletins – BBC, ITV, Channel 4, and Five – as well as Wales’ flagship bulletins – BBC Wales, ITV Wales, and S4C. Additionally, we will track online political news from BBC, ITV, Sky News, BBC Wales, ITV Wales, and S4C, along with social media activity from BBC and ITV in the UK and Wales.
Throughout the campaign, we will provide regular short blog posts summarising key findings.
Here are some of the key issues our analysis will address:
Party prominence
During election periods, broadcasters must follow broad regulatory guidelines on coverage, which require them to provide ‘due weight’ to parties. In other words, an appropriate level of coverage based on the parties’ past and/or current electoral support. Ofcom, the broadcast regulator, no longer stipulates which parties should be considered major or minor for coverage purposes, leaving that to the broadcasters’ discretion. Larger parties, according to the BBC’s 2026 election guidelines, include Labour, the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party of England and Wales, and Reform UK.
Ofcom has provided guidance on past/current electoral support that broadcasters must consider when reporting the campaign, and it operates a fast-tracked complaints system during election periods. By tracking party prominence in media coverage during the campaign, we will be able to provide systematic evidence of how broadcasters allocate airtime.
Visibility of leaders
Parties today are increasingly defined by their leaders. However, these dynamics become distorted in a devolved context, with UK leaders often more recognisable than their Welsh equivalents. A key question during the campaign is whether broadcasters will focus more on the devolved leaders standing in the election, or on UK leaders. For example, will Nigel Farage be more prominent in day-to-day coverage than Reform UK’s leader in Wales, Dan Thomas?
UK and Welsh framing of the election
Although there are important sources of news produced in Wales across broadcast, online and social media sites, more people still get their news from UK-wide or English outlets. UK-wide bulletins attract more viewers than Welsh-specific ones, which may influence how people understand the Senedd campaign. For instance, will UK broadcasts focus more on Westminster politics, portraying the election as a referendum on Keir Starmer’s leadership? What about Plaid Cymru? Might the party be at a disadvantage in UK coverage due to a limited Westminster presence and its status as a Welsh-only party? And will UK-wide media treat the Senedd election as a standalone event, or will reporting combine coverage of the Scottish Holyrood and English local elections?
Degrees of political scrutiny
Political journalism during the election should ideally seek to be more in-depth than merely relaying the parties' messages. It should provide robust scrutiny and explanation of manifesto pledges, enabling the public to evaluate the credibility of each party and its policy proposals. We will study the kinds of scrutiny broadcasters provide and whether it is proportionate. BBC Wales has highlighted its intention to draw on the fact-checking service, BBC Verify, during the campaign. But how often will it be used and how widely across its TV, radio, online and social media channels?
Understanding of the Welsh Political system
This election is taking place following major electoral reform. The Senedd is expanding from 60 to 96 members, and the election will use a new, more proportional, closed-list voting system. Yet public awareness of these reforms remains low. When we asked in a representative YouGov survey of 1544 people in Wales what voting system will be used in the Senedd election. Only 7% of respondents correctly identified the closed-list system, the majority, 58%, did not know what system was going to be used, and 35% identified incorrect systems. This is part of a wider trend of limited public understanding of the Welsh political system. Our survey also revealed significant misunderstanding or confusion about the powers of the Welsh Government, most strikingly in policing, where nearly half of the respondents believed it had been devolved to the Welsh government when it remains under the control of Westminster.
This raises questions about how broadcasters can enhance public awareness and understanding of the Welsh political system prior to polling day. One crucial factor will be that network broadcasters clearly and accurately explain to the audience whether a policy area is reserved to the UK or devolved to Wales. For example, the political scientist John Curtice found that more than three in ten people (31%) thought immigration was one of the most important issues currently facing Wales, yet our YouGov survey discovered 29% of people did not know it was the responsibility of the UK government. Given that immigration is a reserved policy issue and not the responsibility of the Welsh government, it is essential that broadcasters make this clear during the campaign to avoid confusion.
How to follow our study
On issues related to policy, devolved powers, and political communication during the election campaign, our team at Cardiff University will compile systematic evidence and provide timely reports and analyses of the issues raised by the political parties. You can follow our study by signing up for our mailing list.