Contrasting media coverage of the Caerphilly by-election in Wales with UK-wide news: how did broadcasters balance parties and leaders?
Post-election coverage
In UK-wide media, the Caerphilly by-election result was framed around Reform UK’s defeat, the terminal decline of Labour in Wales, and the implications for Keir Starmer’s UK government in Westminster. By contrast, Plaid Cymru, whose candidate Lindsay Whittle won the seat, did not feature as prominently in coverage. The result was largely seen through the prism of power shifts in Westminster, and the prospect of Reform UK’s Nigel Farage becoming the next Prime Minister. Not long after the result was announced, the focus on Westminster politics was acknowledged by BBC Wales Politics journalist, Teleri Glyn Jones, when she asked Lindsay Whittle: “We’ve grabbed you as the winner of this but actually the rest of this room’s media is going to the person who came second, Llŷr Powell from Reform. What do you think that tells us?”.
Reacting to the result, the headline of BBC News UK online analysis read: “Extraordinary Caerphilly by-election humbles Westminster's big beasts”, with a narrative centred on the decline of Labour and the Conservatives. Plaid Cymru, who won the by-election by 11%, was the fourth party mentioned. The analysis of Plaid Cymru’s victory focused on Lindsay Whittle as a candidate with a proud history of public service in Caerphilly, who built a strong local base to finally win after standing repeatedly for a seat in Westminster and in the Senedd. There was limited reference to Plaid Cymru’s wider support in Wales and its leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, was noticeably absent from the article. By contrast, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage was both mentioned and pictured.
Comparatively, Welsh news coverage gave Plaid Cymru and the immediate Welsh context of the by-election much greater focus, alongside covering the wider political ramifications of defeat for Labour and Reform UK. Both BBC Wales Today and ITV Wales at Six featured a running order that reflected how many votes each party received, covering Plaid Cymru first, Reform UK, then Labour.
But how did TV, online and social media in Wales cover the by-election throughout the campaign? To what extent did they weight the perspectives of parties and leaders according to their past electoral success at the Senedd, their standings in the latest opinion polls, or their newsworthiness and ability to set the political agenda?
Overall, this Cardiff University study found BBC and ITV in Wales on TV, online and social media broadly balanced the perspectives of the major political parties, with Labour, Reform UK, Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives receiving most attention. Labour, unsurprisingly, received the most coverage as the governing party in Wales and the party defending the seat. It also was the protagonist in the most news items. After Labour, Reform UK was the party most referenced and leading the news narrative. Its candidate appeared more often than candidates from other parties, while Reform’s leader, Nigel Farage, was the third most referenced party leader, behind Labour and Conservative party leaders based in Wales. In UK-wide network news, Reform UK and Nigel Farage appeared even more prominently, gaining more airtime (on BBC News at Ten) and driving the narrative of the campaign, and promoting debate about the implications for Westminster politics more generally.
Taken together, the findings suggest that broadcasters in Wales weighted coverage of parties according to their past electoral success, with Labour most dominant. But despite only having one Senedd Member, Reform UK featured marginally more than other parties except Labour. This could be interpreted as broadcasters reflecting trends in public opinion polls in combination with the news value of Reform UK acting as a new force in Welsh politics and disrupting the political status quo. It was also motivated by the prominence of a single major news story, the Nathan Gill scandal.
The prominence of Reform was even more pronounced in UK network coverage, perhaps due to the party’s far more dominant standing in the polls. Or, put more bluntly, Reform featured more in UK-wide news because they have held a sustained lead the polls in England over many months and have – according to commentators - been setting the Westminster agenda. Looking ahead to the 2026 Senedd election, if these trends in survey data across Wales and the UK remain the same, there could be a major divergence in how broadcasters in Wales allocate airtime to parties during the campaign compared to UK network news. Given more people in Wales rely on UK-wide news than news produced in Wales, this could prove a significant influence in what news and analysis people are exposed to before they cast their vote next May 2026.
Study of the by-election campaign and key findings
This Cardiff University study examined BBC Wales and ITV Wales news across TV, online and social media during the Caerphilly by-election (between September 26 to October 22). In total, 182 TV and online items were analysed, along with 458 posts on X. The study also examined the UK’s News at Ten on BBC and ITV the week before the election. The key findings included:
In TV and online news coverage of the by-election, Labour was the most referenced (44), which would be expected as the party in power. Excluding Labour, the most referenced parties were Reform UK (32), Plaid Cymru (30), Conservatives (28), Welsh Liberal Democrats (22), Green (13), UKIP (7) and Gwlad (6).
Labour was the protagonist in 19 news items, compared to 11 for Reform UK, 4 for the Conservatives and twice for Plaid Cymru.
Eluned Morgan (15) was the most mentioned party leader followed by Darren Millar (10), Nigel Farage (10), Jane Dodds (9) and Rhun ap Iorwerth (5).
Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell was the most referenced by-election candidate on TV and online news (19), followed by Labour’s Richard Tunnicliff (16), the Conservative’s Gareth Potter (13), Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle (13), the Green Party’s Gareth Hughes (10), the Liberal Democrats’ Steve Aicheler (10), the Green Party’s Gareth Hughes (10), Gwlad’s Anthony Cook (5) and UKIP’s Rogar Quilliam (5).
UK-network coverage was largely framed around the decline of Welsh Labour and Reform’s political ascendancy.
On BBC News at Ten, the time provided to the Reform candidate UK (1m 01s) was much longer than those given to candidates from Labour (36 seconds), Plaid Cymru (30 seconds) and the Conservatives (16 seconds). Nigel Farage was the only UK party leader referenced.
On X, the parties most referenced in political coverage generally was Labour (39.4%, 28), followed by Reform UK (22.5%,16), the Conservatives (21.1%, 15), Plaid Cymru (15.5%, 11), and the Welsh Liberal Democrats (1.4%, 1).
By-election focused news
Table 1 shows Labour was the most referenced party (44) in items about the by-election campaign. This was primarily due to the party was defending the seat, and because many items referenced the tragic death of Hefin David in order to provide background and context to the campaign.
Excluding Labour, the most referenced parties were Reform UK (32), Plaid Cymru (30), Conservatives (28), Welsh Liberal Democrats (22), Green (13), UKIP (7), Gwlad (6).
Notably, only Labour and Reform UK consistently featured as protagonists in news items. Labour was the protagonist in 19 news items, compared to 11 for Reform UK, 4 for the Conservatives and twice for Plaid Cymru.
Labour’s prominence can be explained by Labour’s incumbency bonus, as the current governing party in Wales and the defending party in Caerphilly.
Nine of the stories in which Labour were protagonists focussed on the party’s role in government at the Senedd. This became a by-election news item because the result would impact on the make-up of the Senedd, and the likelihood of Labour being able to pass its annual budget. Other items where Labour led coverage included commentary pieces as the campaign drew to a close predicting that the party might lose Caerphilly after 100 years and stories about its conference.
All 11 of the stories where Reform UK were the protagonists related to the Nathan Gill scandal.
Reform’s Llŷr Powell was the most referenced by-election candidate on TV and online news (19), followed by Labour’s Richard Tunnicliff (16), the Conservative’s Gareth Potter (13), Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle (13), the Green Party’s Gareth Hughes (10), the Liberal Democrats’ Steve Aicheler (10), the Green Party’s Gareth Hughes (10), Gwlad’s Anthony Cook (5) and UKIP’s Rogar Quilliam (5) (see Graph 1).
Party references in TV and online news
Table 2 shows Labour was unsurprisingly the most referenced party on TV and online news (35%, 143). As the government of the day, Labour appeared in many day-to-day stories about ongoing political issues. This represents what academics have long called the “incumbency bonus” – as parties and politicians in government have more media coverage than those in opposition. Labour was followed by Plaid Cymru (19.3%, 79), Reform UK (17.4%, 71) and the Conservatives (16.1%, 66).
Party leaders
In news items about the by-election, Labour’s Eluned Morgan was referenced the most (15), followed by the Conservative’s Darren Millar (10), Reform UK’s Nigel Farage (10), the Liberal Democrat’s Jane Dodds (9) and Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth (5).
This suggests Nigel Farage managed to assert himself as a defining player in the by-election and in Welsh politics during the campaign period. This is despite the fact he is the only party leader not elected in the Senedd and Reform UK did not benefit from coverage of the leader’s speech because the party’s conference was not held during the campaign.
Coverage of Nigel Farage was closely linked to his response to the Nathan Gill scandal and his campaigning in Caerphilly for the Reform candidate Llŷr Powell. By comparison, other party leaders benefited from coverage during their respective party conferences and activities at the Senedd.
In all coverage of all politics on BBC Wales and ITV Wales across TV and online news, Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan (41) was the most referenced party leader. Conservative leader Darren Millar and Nigel Farage received the joint most coverage (27), followed by Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth (22).
Your Voice, Your Vote debate
The centre piece of BBC Wales by-election coverage was the Your Vote, Your Voice debate on 15 October. The hour-long prime-time TV debate featured six of the eight candidates standing (Gwlad and UKIP candidates were excluded) and gave all the major parties an opportunity to pitch their policies, respond to questions from a live studio audience, and be scrutinised by one another, the audience and host Nick Servini.
The inclusion of six rather than eight parties in the live TV debate would have been driven by the BBC’s editorial guidelines on impartially reporting the by-election. Broadcasters have to follow strict rules on impartiality during election campaigns – laid out by media regulator, Ofcom – ensuring they allocate airtime to parties according to a range of factors, such as their past electoral performance and according to the latest trends in opinion polls. On that basis, presumably UKIP and Gwlad were excluded from the debate.
However, both parties were given a platform to present their positions on TV news around the time of the debate. On the 15 October, the Gwlad candidate was interviewed on BBC Wales Today as was the UKIP candidate on 16 October. They were the only candidate to be interviewed on both nights.
There was no ITV equivalent of the Your Vote, Your Voice debate, and the debate received no coverage on ITV. However, during an in-depth by-election segment on Wales at Six on 21 October, ITV interviewed all candidates, including Gwlad and UKIP, as part of its coverage.
UK network news coverage of by-election campaign
Two days prior to polling, the by-election featured on BBC News at Ten and ITV News at Ten.
On 21 October, the BBC political editor covered the by-election on BBC News at Ten. The item was framed around the decline of Welsh Labour and Reform’s political ascendancy. Labour’s Richard Tunnicliff, Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell, Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle, and the Conservatives’ Gareth Potter were all interviewed.
The time provided to the Reform candidate UK (1m 01s) was much longer than that given to candidates from Labour (36 seconds), Plaid Cymru (30 seconds) and the Conservatives (16 seconds). Nigel Farage was the only UK party leader referenced.
On 22 October, the by-election was covered by ITV News at Ten. Similar to the BBC, the item was framed about the high stakes for Labour as Reform UK and Plaid Cymru set their sights on a possible victory in a historic Labour stronghold. The item did not cover any of the candidates. Instead, it concentrated on voter sentiment with vox pops from a variety of constituents.
Analysis of X on BBC Wales and ITV Wales
Overall output
Between September 26 to October 22, 458 posts were analysed on the X accounts of BBC Wales News (320) and ITV Wales News (138).
40.8% (187) of all posts discussed a political topic specific to Wales, such as a devolved issue, the Senedd or local elections.
Only 2.6% (12) of posts made direct reference to the Caerphilly by-election.
Coverage of the Caerphilly by-election
The majority of by-election posts focused on general campaign updates (7), rather than on specific political parties or candidates. However, a notable proportion (3) centred on coverage of the BBC-hosted debate.
When political parties were mentioned, Labour featured most frequently (4). Coverage of the remaining five parties—Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, Reform UK, the Welsh Liberal Democrats and the Green Party—was evenly distributed (2 each).
This distribution suggests a degree of balance and impartiality in coverage, with Labour’s prominence reflecting its position as the governing party.
All posts referencing non-Labour parties related specifically to the BBC’s by-election debate.
Political parties were more frequently positioned as the main focus of posts (14) rather than in supporting or background roles (8).
Visual content followed a similar pattern, with over half of posts (13) depicting a party representative.
No posts included direct quotations from party figures, suggesting that coverage prioritised campaign process and event reporting over direct political messaging or party voice.
Political content more broadly
Of the 187 posts about politics generally, BBC Wales accounted for the majority of them (58.3%, 109), with ITV Wales contributing 41.7% (78).
Across all political content, most posts did not mention a specific party (62.0%, 116).
When parties were referenced, Labour was most frequently discussed (39.4%, 28), followed by Reform UK (22.5%,16), the Conservatives (21.1%, 15), Plaid Cymru (15.5%, 11), and the Welsh Liberal Democrats (1.4%, 1). Outside of the Caerphilly by-election, the Green Party was not discussed.
When political parties were mentioned, they were typically positioned as the central focus of the story rather than in a supporting role. This was particularly true for Plaid Cymru (81.8%, 9), the Conservatives (100.0%, 15), and the Welsh Liberal Democrats (100.0%, 1). For Labour and Reform UK, three-quarters of posts mentioning them also positioned them as the protagonist (Labour: 75.0%, 21; Reform UK: 75.0%, 12).
Visual coverage followed a broadly similar pattern. Party figures most frequently appeared in images or videos linked to Reform UK (62.5%, 10), Labour (53.6%, 15), Plaid Cymru (54.5%, 6), and the Welsh Liberal Democrats (100% , 1). For the Conservatives, however, appearances were more evenly split, with posts only slightly more likely to include visual representation (54.5%, 6) than not (45.5%, 5).
Direct quotations from political parties were relatively uncommon—likely reflecting the character limitations of X. Reform UK (75.0%, 12), Labour (67.9%, 19), and Plaid Cymru (63.6%, 7) were all more likely not to be quoted directly in posts. The Conservatives were the only party slightly more likely to be quoted (57.1%, 8) than not (42.9%, 6).
Political figures
Mentions of individual politicians were relatively rare across Welsh political coverage, appearing in only a third of posts (33.8%, 68).
As might be expected in the context of a Welsh by-election, most of these references were to the Senedd (66.7%,18) rather than Westminster (25.9%, 7) politicians.
Party leaders were the most visible figures overall—particularly those heading the Welsh branches of their respective parties: Eluned Morgan (11.8%, 8), Rhun ap Iorwerth (8.8%, 6), Darren Millar (4.4%, 3), and Jane Dodds (2.9%, 2).
By contrast, UK party leaders appeared only occasionally. Mentions of Keir Starmer (1.5%, 1) and Kemi Badenoch (4.4%, 3) were infrequent, while Nigel Farage (7.4%, 5) featured more prominently than his Westminster counterparts—likely reflecting Reform UK’s absence of any distinct Welsh leadership figure.
When examining references to individual Caerphilly by-election candidates, Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell was the most frequently mentioned (33.3%, 5), with much of this coverage linked to reports concerning his association with Nathan Gill. The remaining candidates — representing Labour, the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party — each received a comparable level of attention (13.3%, 2 respectively), suggesting an overall balanced but low-intensity level of candidate-specific reporting.
Other recurring names included Nathan Gill (4.4%, 3), whose appearances were linked to ongoing coverage of allegations concerning his ties to Russia.
Overall, the relative absence of Westminster politicians underscores a distinctly devolved focus in Welsh political reporting on social media, with attention concentrated on domestic leaders and Senedd-level politics.