The impartiality of broadcasters in Wales: An analysis of BBC and ITV news coverage of the Caerphilly by-election
A new Cardiff University study of TV, online and social media output produced by BBC Wales and ITV Wales during the Caerphilly by-election has so far (between September 26 to October 14) found:
As the governing party, Welsh Labour was unsurprisingly the most referenced party on TV and online news (29). Reform, who are neck-and-neck with Plaid Cymru in Senedd election polls in Wales, but leading UK wide opinion polls, was the second most referenced party (19), followed by Plaid Cymru (17) and the Conservatives (15).
With the exception of Labour’s First Minster (34), Reform UK’s Nigel Farage was the most referenced party leader in TV and online news coverage (23), followed by the Conservative’s Darren Millar (22), and Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth (19). However, Farage’s coverage was linked to reports concerning the allegations involving Nathan Gill, as well as campaigning in the by-election campaign and in Reform UK’s policies.
Nigel Farage, who was the only UK party leader to have campaigned in Caerphilly, is generating coverage which could benefit Reform. For example, YouGov polling between October 13-14 about the favorability of party leaders found that Nigel Farage was the most favoured politician in Wales (31%).
Reform’s Llŷr Powell was the most referenced by-election candidate (12) on TV and online news, followed by Labour’s Richard Tunnicliff (9), the Conservative’s Gareth Potter, Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle (6), the Liberal Democrats’ Steve Aicheler (5) and the Green Party’s Gareth Hughes (4).
Labour was most frequently discussed (35.8%, n=19) on X, followed by the Conservatives (24.5%, n=13), Reform UK (22.6%, n=12), Plaid Cymru (15.1%), and the Welsh Liberal Democrats (1.9%).
Only ten posts (2.8%) in our analysis of 341 posts on X made a direct reference to the Caerphilly by-election. Of these ten posts, most have been about general campaign updates rather than focusing on individual political parties or candidates.
The Liberal Democrats and the Greens have received limited coverage so far, which could be a reflection of their poll standing and past electoral success. But it nonetheless means they have had limited opportunities to pitch their policies or candidates so far on TV, online and social media.
The main topics that featured when political parties were referenced related to the Senedd election (19.5% N= 59), the Caerphilly by-election (15.8%, N=48) and allegations against Nathan Gill (29.2% N = 28).
While Senedd election coverage has often been policy-driven – dominated by leaders’ speeches at their party conferences – the by-election has often centred on announcing the candidates and voter registration, rather than addressing substantive policy issues. The most prominent issues specifically about the by election were about the funding of local libraries and policy-oriented biographies of candidates in the lead-up to the debates. So far there has only been one story about immigration and asylum, covering a Senedd debate about the “Nation of Sanctuary”.
Context and method of study
On 15 October 2025, the BBC hosted six of the eight candidates standing in the Senedd Caerphilly by-election the following week. This included figures from Labour, Conservative, Reform, Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. The prime time hour-long TV programme gave all the major parties the platform to pitch their policies as well as the opportunity for Nick Servini, the BBC presenter, to scrutinize their responses and a live audience to hold the candidates to account. The BBC also had a live online blog monitoring what was said, with a team of journalists fact-checking claims. While the blog did not appear to be widely used by the public (attracting in the range of 700 to 800 viewers during the programme), it did put some debating points into useful context.
The inclusion of six rather than eight parties in the live TV debate would have been driven by the BBC’s editorial guidelines on impartially reporting the by-election. Broadcasters have to follow strict rules on impartiality during election campaigns – laid out by media regulator, Ofcom – ensuring they allocate airtime to parties according to a range of factors, such as their past electoral performance and according to the latest trends in opinion polls. With the candidates from UKIP and Gwlad having limited past electoral success at the Senedd and barely registering on the latest opinion polls, understandably they were left out.
In a UK context, the allocation of airtime has generated widespread debate about how far the Liberal Democrats, a party with 72 MPs, should be covered compared to Reform UK, who have just 4 MPs. Yet Reform UK has been leading the polls since April 2025 and was the best performing party in the latest regional and local elections. Our research of UK TV news bulletins between January and July 2025 found Reform and its leader Nigel Farage featured far more than the Liberal Democrats and its leader Ed Davey, but much of this time period was outside the election cycle.
As part of our AHRC-funded project about the impartiality of news, we have been examining political coverage on BBC and ITV Wales since September 26 - when all eight candidates were announced – until October 14 2025. Both broadcasters report impartially across all their output – even though some of their online and social media content is not Ofcom regulated. In total, we have monitored political news coverage on BBC Wales Today on TV at 6.30pm and ITV Wales at 6pm, the BBC Wales and ITV Wales politics home pages online, as well as the X accounts of BBC Wales and ITV Wales. One BBC Wales Today 11 October was not available. According to the latest Ofcom Wales news consumption survey, BBC’s Wales Today on TV reaches almost a fifth of people in Wales each week, while ITV News Wales reaches more than one in ten people. Representative polls in the UK have consistently shown the public invest more trust in news produced by broadcasters than their online and social media counterparts, including our own research that showed that TV and radio news programming on BBC and ITV were the most trusted major news organisations.
The focus of our analysis is on references to all parties and their leaders, as well as the issues they have been referenced in so far in the run up to the Caerphilly by-election.
Findings
Social media analysis
We have examined 341 X posts in total so far in the campaign, 241 from BBC Wales and 100 from ITV Wales (between 26 September to 15 October 2025). Almost half (43.4%) of all posts discussed a political topic specific to Wales, such as a devolved issue, the Senedd or local elections.
Of the 148 political posts, BBC Wales accounted for 58.8% (n=87) and ITV Wales for 41.2% (n=61). Most posts did not mention a specific party (63.5%). Since the sample size is relatively low, we have interpreted the key findings of BBC and ITV X posts together:
Labour was most frequently discussed (35.8%, n=19), followed by the Conservatives (24.5%, n=13), Reform UK (22.6%, n=12), Plaid Cymru (15.1%, n=8), and the Welsh Liberal Democrats (1.9%, n=1).
When a party was mentioned, it was typically the story’s protagonist, especially for Reform, the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats (100% in each case). The only exception to this finding was Labour who, while still the protagonist (78.9%, n=15), was also backgrounded in the story (21.1%, n=4).
Visual coverage followed a similar trend: party figures often appeared in images or videos, particularly for Labour (68.4%), Reform UK (83.3%) and Plaid Cymru (62.5%).
Direct quotations were comparatively rare – possibly reflecting X’s character limits – with Labour (47.4%) and the Conservatives (58.3%) quoted most frequently.
Party leaders were the most visible figures in Welsh political coverage: Eluned Morgan (18.2%), Rhun ap Iorwerth (11.4%) and Nigel Farage (11.4%) appeared most frequently.
Other recurring figures included Nathan Gill (6.8%) and coverage of his alleged links to Russia, and UK-level politicians Kemi Badenoch (6.8%) and Keir Starmer (2.3%).
Only 10 posts (2.8%) in our analysis of 341 posts made a direct reference to the Caerphilly by-election. Of these 10, most have been about general campaign updates rather than focusing on individual political parties or candidates. When parties were mentioned, there is one reference for Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK. That there have been no references to Plaid Cymru or Welsh Liberal Democrats should be noted.
Consistent with our findings of political posts on X generally, we found political parties were more often backgrounded rather than positioned as the protagonist of posts. Visual content mirrored this trend: roughly two-thirds of posts did not depict a party representative. We also discovered that no posts included direct quotations from political parties, with a focus more on the process of the campaign rather than specific party perspectives. The majority of by-election content centred on campaign activity followed by topics related to electoral processes, while only a few related to specific issues coverage, such as the economy and taxation.
Analysis of initial findings
The Caerphilly by-election represents an important moment in the current balance of power at the Senedd, but it also provides a litmus test for what might happen at the Senedd elections last year. A key part of the campaign will include how the media covers the election, in particular broadcasters in Wales who represent the most used sources of information and are the most trusted. In other words, how broadcasters in Wales impartially report the campaign will have significant implications for what people consume in the run-up to the 2026 Senedd election campaign. Broadcasters in Wales have already begun discussing how they will satisfy rules on impartiality given the nation’s distinctive political system, past electoral history and trends in opinion polls.
Our study of how broadcasters reported the Caerphilly by-election so far offers some initial findings. Labour was the most referenced party in TV, online and social media coverage. As the government of the day, Labour appeared in many day-to-day stories about ongoing political issues. This represents what academics have long called the “incumbency bonus” – as parties and politicians in government have more media coverage than those in opposition. In TV news, Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and Reform were referenced to almost the same degree. In online news, there was more variation in how much coverage these parties received. Plaid Cymru (21.9%) and Reform (19.7%) were referenced more the Conservatives (13.1%). On ITV, Reform marginally received the most coverage (20.4%), followed by the Conservatives (18.4%) and Plaid Cymru (12.2%). Although the Conservatives are currently polling well behind Reform and Plaid Cymru, the party has received almost as much coverage during the by-election so far – although they do currently have 14 seats at the Senedd and represent the largest opposition party. Reform, who are neck-and-neck with Plaid Cymru in Senedd election polls in Wales, but leading UK wide opinion polls, was the second most referenced party, followed by Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives. While Reform only has one current member of the Senedd, the party did receive the third highest share of votes in Wales at the last general election (17% and 223,018 votes). All these factors will be shaping the impartial judgements of broadcasters as they allocate time to candidates in a crowded political market-place.
Of course, the challenge for broadcasters will be to not only reflect all the parties, but to hold them to account for their policy pledges and claims. Reform’s high profile leader Nigel Farage, for example, has received prominent attention during the campaign – something that may benefit Reform given a YouGov poll just days ago revealed he is the most favoured UK party leader in Wales. There is currently no specific leader for Reform in Wales (unlike other parties) and Nigel Farage has generated coverage by being the only UK party leader to have campaigned in Caerphilly.
Reform’s main policy is to campaign on the issue of immigration, which has not featured in routine news reporting but was prominently discussed on the BBC’s Caerphilly’s by-election TV debate. But a BBC fact-checker online pointed out that immigration was a reserved Westminster power – not something the Senedd could decide. While the current Welsh government does have a "Nation of Sanctuary" policy that funds people resettling and integrating in Wales, it represents a tiny proportion of the £27bn the Welsh government spends in total each year. Broadcasters will need to decide if this policy – representing less than 0.05% of the Welsh government budget over six years – is something worth prominently covering not just in the remaining days of the by election campaign, but in the run up to the Senedd election next year. Given Nigel Farage’s media prominence and profile in Wales, broadcasters will also need to decide how far he should be held accountable for campaigning on policy positions – such as controlling immigration – that are beyond the powers of the Senedd.